Labor Statistics

How Accurate are the Projections of the Labor Statistics?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a U.S. federal agency that collects, processes, gathers, and disseminates statistical information to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, and the labor sector. It analyzes inflation, compensation, and consumer spending. In addition, it also serves as a statistical resource to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The International Trade Data System (ITDS) mentioned that BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation.

BLS publishes import and export price indexes for goods and services to meet the economic needs of the nation. These price indexes are used to deflate the import and export trade values in goods and services in order to better assess actual increases or decreases in quantity. In order to deliver accurate and timely price indexes, it works closely with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and other agencies to collect trade and transportation data.

Accuracy of Information

According to information website Investopedia, much of what the BLS releases are reports about activity that has already transpired, such as the unemployment rate, the consumer price index, and the producer price index. These reports are generated based on a relatively small sample size. For example, the unemployment rate is derived from a survey of approximately 60,000 households. While these numbers are generally considered accurate, there is some deviation between the general population and the sample group.

Additionally, seasonality can affect the jobs report in several ways — fewer respondents than usual complete the survey during the holidays and summer travel season, and the manner in which seasonal jobs are tracked is not entirely transparent. As a newcomer in the industry, civilian resume writing can know exactly what job best suits you. Perhaps the most important thing for you to keep in mind is that the financial markets track the indicators released by the BLS and act based upon the information that is released without fail.

Timeliness of Information

The BLS discussed that their projections have 10 years span. The current projections cover the 2012—2022 decade. The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth; and assumes a full employment economy in the target year. Since recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.

One difficult assignment the Bureau of Labor Statistics is tasked with is forecasting employment rates a decade in advance. But whatever the projection of the BLS is, we need to always be ready. Once we get into the job market, civilian resume writing services can ensure that we have the best chance to get our dream job.

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